New Coke Myth: A Science Fail That Nearly Killed Coca-Cola

Many people believe that Pepsi beat Coca-Cola in taste tests performed during the 1980s, despite the faulty science methods employed. Even more incredible, however, is the claim that New Coke actually beat Classic Coca-Cola in taste tests! As part of its “Project Kansas” the Coca-Cola company did its own tests, comparing its sweeter New Coke formula to the classic Coca-Cola formula. They found, much like Pepsi did, that people preferred the New Coke! However, a close look at the scientific rigor of these tests, and a phenomenon known as the “sip-test illusion” reveals something much more fascinating was at work.

These “in-house” tests confirmed the Coca-Cola Company’s nightmare had come true. Not only had Pepsi eaten into Coke’s market share and scored with younger consumers, but their own tests had confirmed that most people liked a sweeter taste in their cola beverage. Therefore, according to the story, the company had no choice but to introduce New Coke in order to compete with an ever-growing Pepsi juggernaut. Except, of course, they over-reacted. Coca-Cola drinkers protested loudly. They hated the sweeter-tasting new formula. New Coke was off the shelves in 79 days, and “Coca-Cola Classic” sales went through the roof.

It Was a Pepsi Mirage: The surprising and unknow science failure behind the 1980s Pepsi Challenge.

The Public Didn’t Know They Liked New Coke?

This story causes some people to think that this is a case of “McDonald’s Magic”, a belief based on the supposition that unsophisticated consumers don’t know what they like. They remain loyal to certain products because of other factors, like advertising, cost, addictiveness, etc. In other words, people drink Coca-Cola for the same reason they go to McDonald’s; not because they like it but because of some nebulous, hard-to-pinpoint factors that keep them coming back, like sentimentality. Taste tests confirmed that people liked New Coke better but they insisted that the original formula be brought back anyway.

According to other theories, Coca-Cola had it all planned out in advance. In other words, perhaps the introduction of New Coke wasn’t the biggest marketing mistake of all time, although it certainly seemed to be. Perhaps, instead, the company temporarily replaced the original Coca-Cola with New Coke to prove a point to people who were no longer buying the product. You’ll miss us when we’re gone! Well, people did miss the original Coca-Cola. The question remains: did they miss the taste, or did they miss the cultural icon?

Why Did the Coca-Cola Company Launch New Coke?

The truth is that Coca-Cola had every reason to fear Pepsi, at least in the short term. In the early 1980s, Coca-Cola’s market share had dropped to 24 percent after being on top for decades. Pepsi was indeed outselling Coke! To top it off, not only had “The Pepsi Challenge” taste tests turned out in Pepsi’s favor. Coca-Cola’s on tests confirmed this. The mission to replace the old formula with a new sweeter-tasting one began, coined the Kansas Project, after a famous photo of a Kansas newsman sipping Coke. The company did more taste-testing between the old and new formulas, and again, people liked the sweeter-tasting version better. It was time for something drastic. The company went ahead and introduced its New Coke flavor.

This decision to replace a winning recipe over some taste tests was a bad one. I’ve already explained all the reasons why the Pepsi taste tests were scientifically invalid, and the same reasons explain why Coca-Cola’s own taste tests were also invalid. The biggest factor, among others, was the Sip-Test Illusion. In the tests, people were sipping small samples. It is a well-known phenomenon that people quite often do prefer a sweeter taste for a few sips or a few bites, but quickly grow tired of the sweetness when drinking an entire soda. This, combined with the huge sentimental value Americans attach to Coca-Cola, made the whole research project a colossal miscalculation.

Nobody Wanted a Clear Cola: The Crystal Pepsi blunder may have been down to a strange quirk of flavor science and how our brains work.

Another Coke Blunder

The company made another miscalculation. They actually considered outright asking people whether they wanted the company to switch to the new sweeter formula. But “Kansas” was a big industry secret. They didn’t want to competition to know what they were up to. So, they decided not to ask, at least in so many words. Instead, they convened focus groups to determine whether they would drink the new “Kansas” soda if it were renamed Coke. Such an odd workaround proved to provide some shaky and unclear data. The company considered just keeping both products, but didn’t want a new “Cola War” between their products, further eroding their market share. On the company’s 100th birthday, hoping to make a big splash, the company nixed the original Coca-Cola and introduced New Coke instead, on April 23, 1985.

At that time, I was working at a grocery store. I well remember the absolute outrage and dismay that ensued. Customers were continually asking us when the old Coca-Cola would be available. We had to explain to them that New Coke was here to stay, according to the company. Some people bought up as many of the old bottles as they could find and hoarded them!

The Public Was Outraged That Original Coke Was Gone

The rest is history. People took to the streets, literally dumping bottles on the streets. The company was bombarded with phone calls, boycotts, petitions, etc. According to a psychiatrist, the company hired to listen in on some of the hundreds of thousands of phone calls, some customers sounded so distraught on the phone it was as if a beloved family member had died. On July 11, the company announced that it would bring back the original Coca-Cola. At first, “Coca-Cola Classic” shared shelf space with New Coke, but soon, New Coke was gone and so was the “classic” moniker on old Coke. I was never as upset as other folks. I oscillated between Dr Pepper and Mr. Pibb (the soda machine at the grocery store had Mr. Pibb for a quarter).

Admittedly, some people, including journalists, bashed New Coke before they even tried it. And some of those folks who rushed out to buy up hundreds of dollars’ worth of old Coke never even bothered to try New Coke, either. To many, the whole idea was abhorrent. Entire books have been written on this premise. But the new formula was also abhorrent, according to those who did try it, including myself. If I wanted something sweeter, I could have a Pepsi.

Coca-Cola’s statement shows that they hadn’t yet learned the lesson: “We did not understand the deep emotions of so many of our customers for Coca-Cola.” It’s very true that those emotions played a role. But, this didn’t stop many customers from finding other products to buy during that short time New Coke was on the shelves, and some of those folks kept on buying those new drinks. The idea that there were other factors more important than taste was and is still thought to be a valid one. But, while there are indeed many factors that caused Coca-Cola to commit such a huge marketing mistake, the biggest factor was a failure of scientific rigor. Too much confidence was placed in taste tests that gave misleading data. The bottom line is this: People liked the taste of the original Coca-Cola better. Soon after the relaunch, Coca-Cola was back on top, shaken, but not beaten.

Millions of people got their image of Santa Clause not from centuries of cultural exchange, but from Coca-Cola advertisements. Does this mean that Coca-Cola invented the popular image of Santa-Claus, down to his red and white outfit?

The Failure Of New Coke Was NOT Only Due to Public Perception

Despite all this, many sources insist the fact that people liked New Coke based on the success of the blind taste tests. They assert that the public felt betrayed when it was revealed that the reason for the tests was to replace original Coca-Cola, a product they were so attached to for reasons other than taste. The idea that the failure of New Coke was only a matter of public perception and nostalgia is a modern myth, and anybody alive at the time, like me, can tell you different. Yes, public perception was one part of the failure, but taste was the bigger one. The taste tests only appeared to show that the public preferred New Coke as a beverage. Not all tests are valid, and not all empirical results can be relied upon. People might have preferred a sip or two of New Coke, but they continued to prefer original Coca-Cola as a beverage drunk in typical amounts.